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Zusammenfassung |
A simple analytical technique is developed for estimating the predictability of recruitment, that is, correlations between recruitment and stage-specific mortalities or abundances. The method requires the input of estimates of the variability of stage-specific mortalities, which may be calculated from mean stage-specific mortalities by applying a published regression. It is shown that modification of this regression to compensate for sampling error in field measurements of abundance significantly reduces the estimated standard deviation of log-recruitment, which is an important factor in the predictability calculations. It is concluded that the prospects for predicting recruitment from egg or larval surveys or from environmental variables are quite poor for fish stocks showing the typical distribution of mortality across stages. |
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