Zusammenfassung: Studies of predator-prey interactions have been limited to laboratories or relatively small scale field experiments because of logistic difficulties in large scale field experiments. Much evidence has suggested that predictions based on small scale experiments on predator-prey interactions may not be simply extended to large scales, e.g. whole system. This study was designed to examine predation effects on a prey fish assemblage at the whole lake scale. After a year of premanipulation study, northern pike (Esox lucius) were introduced into a small piscivore-free lake inhabited by 14 species of fishes. In the third and fourth years, the lake was divided by a large mesh fence and northern pike were introduced into one half of the lake. Predation effects on individual prey population were estimated for both direct effects (i.e., consumption of prey species) and indirect effects, including habitat changes associated with predator avoidance behavior, increase of emigration rates and changes of population size structure. The relative importance of direct versus indirect effects was examined using randomized intervention analysis along with a model that quantifies the indirect effects. Decreases of prey fish biomass due to increased emigration was at least as great as that due to the direct effect of consumption when prey biomass was high (>40 kg/ha) but not when prey biomass was low (<30 kg/ha). Significant indirect effects included dramatically decreased abundance of the dominant species (northern redbelly dace, Phoxinus eos), increase of some rare species (sunfish, Lepomis spp. and creek chub, Semotilus atromaculatus), and decreased mean sizes of redbelly dace. Indirect effects occurred rapidly and were most apparent immediately following the introduction of northern pike. Community responses to northern pike predation included changes of species composition, species diversity and community stabilities. The fish communities were significantly different among the pre-pike period, pike period and post-pike period. The greatest variance was related to abundances of redbelly dace and sunfish. However, predation effects on the prey fish community depended on the observational scales used to determine community structure. (DBO)

Zusammenfassung: For several decades, aquatic ecologists have debated differing viewpoints on the factors that control ecosystem productivity. Much of the controversy centers on the interpretation of empirical relationships between factors that limit the amount of energy transferred among trophic levels in aquatic ecosystems. The primary statistical tool used has been regression analysis, but such models often fail to explain a substantial portion of the variability observed. The suggestion has been made in the literature of aquatic ecology that regression models may be inappropriate, and that limiting factors may be better related to the maximum rather than mean response. Statistical models that account for the large variability in relationships between limiting factors and response variables at higher trophic levels and shift the focus from description of expected values to description of upper boundaries have not been developed. The goal of this project was to develop statistical models for the relationships between limiting factors and the maximum output of biological processes. A number of models may be formulated, one of the primary being Y sub(i) – gamma x sub(i)U sub(i) + sigma epsilon sub(i), where gamma > 0, U sub(i) similar to iid Beta ( alpha , beta ), the x's are considered fixed values on the real line, and the error terms, epsilon sub(i), are centered iid random variables. This model describes a triangular array of points lying between zero and a straight line with positive slope, a data pattern seen numerous times in the ecological literature. The response variable Y is an identifiable mixture of the random variable U, with the model representing a situation in which Y is observed but U is unobserved. Maximum likelihood estimates for the parameters ( alpha , beta , gamma , sigma ) may be computed using the EM algorithm. Estimation is based on maximization of the expected full-data likelihood where the expectation is taken with respect to the conditional density of U given Y. A portion of the dissertation is devoted to the confirmation of asymptotic properties as the response variable, Y sub(i)'s, are not identically distributed. A set of conditions depending on the identically distributed error terms is given for consistency and asymptotic normality of MLE's. The model specific conditions are met by a number of error densities. (DBO)

Zusammenfassung: As the CoastWatch regional node for the Great Lakes, the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL) is working to obtain and/or develop and deliver environmental data and products for near real-time monitoring of the Great Lakes to support environmental science and decision making. In support of this goal, GLERL is providing access to near real-time and retrospective satellite observations and in-situ data for the Great Lakes to Federal, state, and local agencies and academic institutions. There are currently nearly 40 regional CoastWatch users. The goals and objectives of the Great Lakes CoastWatch Program directly support agency statutory responsibilities in estuarine and marine science, living marine resource protection, and ecosystem monitoring and management. GLERL is currently receiving an enhanced digital image product suite of 26 images including satellite derived surface-temperature, visible and near-infrared reflectance, brightness temperatures, satellite and solar zenith angle data, and cloud masks from the NOAA-12 satellite. These products are downloaded from the NOAA Ocean Products Center (OPC) via INTERNET on a daily basis and archived at GLERL. Over 32,000 image products have been received and archived since becoming the Great Lakes CoastWatch Node in 1990. GOES-8 data is also currently being received.

Zusammenfassung: The focus of this dissertation was the estimation of theoretical reference levels such as K, the environmental carrying capacity, and MNPL, the maximum net productivity level, for three fishes off Southern California and for the northern fur seal (Callorhinus ursinus) population of St. Paul Island, Alaska. The estimation techniques were based on computer modeling of historical population trends. The assessment of these theoretical reference levels for nature populations is fundamentally important to the development and testing of concepts in theoretical ecology and population dynamics. In the first study, maximum-likelihood estimates of pre-exploitation biomass were made for the white seabass (Atractoscion nobilis) and the yellowtail (Seriola lalandei) by assuming that development of corresponding commercial fisheries led to a shift in size distributions of these fishes, as indicated by records of the Avalon Tuna Club, Santa Catalina Island, California. Pre-exploitation biomass for Southern California populations of both these fishes was estimated to be about 20,000 tons. The pre-exploitation biomass of the giant sea bass (Stereolepis gigas) was estimated to be 1300 tons. Due to insufficient natural history information, this estimate was based on commercial catch records only. In the second study, estimates of theoretical reference levels for the northern fur seal population of St. Paul Island were based on computer simulations of pup production from 1912 to 1970, repetitive simulations were used to construct frequency distributions of estimates for MNPL, K, the number of pups born at MNPL and K, and the ratio MNPL/K. These distributions serve as a measure of the confidence that can be placed in single estimates of reference levels, and thereby provide a general context within which these reference levels can be evaluated. The final study of this dissertation investigated the pelagic migration of northern fur seal pups. Results indicated that initial migration paths for these pups are more widely dispersed than previously assumed. This information contributes to the understanding of northern fur seal life histories. A fuller understanding of life history information will eventually facilitate more accurate modeling of northern fur seal population dynamics. (DBO)